the probabilities of phenomena is unknown,they must be intaken
for equalthe expected value of the strategies
The chosen strategy is a strategy with the highest expected value, subject to equal probabilities
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Презентация на тему How managers can make a decision in an uncertainty environment?
Содержание
- 2. Solution Criterion of Laplace (Bayesian)The Bayesian postulate:
- 3. For strategies S1, S2, S3, S4, S5,
- 4. The criterion of Laplace - is the
- 5. Conclusion :The process of decision-making under uncertainty
- 6. Other methods of evoidance of uncertaintyHedging- method
- 7. Manufacturer buys oil and plans to sell
- 8. FLEXIBLE INVESTMENT I don't want to be locked
- 9. Other methods of evoidance of uncertaintyDIVERSIFICATION
- 10. Other methods of evoidance of uncertaintyTHE
- 11. Tropical Products
- 12. Скачать презентацию
- 13. Похожие презентации
Solution Criterion of Laplace (Bayesian)The Bayesian postulate: if the probabilities of phenomena is unknown,they must be intaken for equalthe expected value of the strategiesThe chosen strategy is a strategy with the highest expected value, subject to
Слайд 2
Solution Criterion of Laplace (Bayesian)
The Bayesian postulate: if
Слайд 3
For strategies S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, the
expected value is 22/4, 24/4, 46/4, 42/4 and 47/4
respectivelyThe result of the assumption of equal probabilities for each state of the economy is a decision in a situation of risk
Слайд 4 The criterion of Laplace - is the criterion
of rationality, completely insensitive to the decision-makers
Suitable for long-term
forecasting by large firms, as in fact equality of probabilities of all the States of the economy is impossible, especially in the short term
Слайд 5
Conclusion :
The process of decision-making under uncertainty is
the process of criteria selection, and then performance of
the calculations necessary to make a selection within this criterionWhat criterion is the most suitable?
The choice often depends on
personal reasons!
Слайд 6
Other methods of evoidance of uncertainty
Hedging
- method in
which future uncertainty is replaced with the reliability of
the current contractСлайд 7 Manufacturer buys oil and plans to sell gasoline
made of this oil after 3 months.
To reduce the
risk, he enters into a forward contract for the supply of gasoline with expiry of 3 months.
Слайд 8
FLEXIBLE INVESTMENT
I don't want to be locked in
investments in specialized assets unless it will become clear
that the demand for them will take place during the whole term of investments Other methods of evoidance of uncertainty
Слайд 9
Other methods of evoidance of uncertainty
DIVERSIFICATION OF
THE COMPANY'S INTERESTS
This approach is illustrated by the old
adage: "don't put all your eggs in one basket"
Слайд 10
Other methods of evoidance of uncertainty
THE ACQUISITION
OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Obviously, the more information you gather about
the future, the less it will be undefinedHowever, in some time the law of diminishing marginal utility will occur
